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We are entering AI's half time where the challenge isn't just building smarter models, but asking smarter questions. The future lies in redefining evaluation, aligning with real world needs, and unlocking true utility.

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It's informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.